Memory Crisis May Stretch to 2030, Prices Still Climbing

Buying a new PC or upgrading a laptop could get more expensive well into the next decade, if a source at one of China's largest memory makers is to be believed. The warning arrives alongside fresh analysis pointing to steeper RAM contract prices in the final stretch of 2026, adding to a year of steady cost increases across memory and storage.

Chipmaker Points to Three-Year Shortage

According to coverage highlighted by TweakTown, a post from Jukan at analyst firm Citrini Research pointed to a report from The Wire China. That report cites an employee at Chinese memory manufacturer YMTC who said the company "expects the global memory shortage will last for at least another three years".

The source also said YMTC has already raised prices for its chips and is shifting production toward higher-margin products. Jukan tied the comments specifically to NAND production, the type of flash memory used in SSDs, though the quoted statement refers more broadly to the memory crisis and would therefore include RAM sticks as well.

TweakTown noted that the SSD angle matters because YMTC is now the third-largest global NAND chip supplier, behind only Samsung and SK Hynix. Any change in YMTC's output or pricing can ripple through the wider storage market.

TrendForce Sees Q4 Pricing Jump

Separately, Jukan flagged a new TrendForce report describing DRAM supply as "very tight." In the firm's words, "Suppliers' early-stage discussions on 4Q26 contract pricing point to meaningful price increases, suggesting strengthening demand momentum, particularly from US CSPs."

The term CSP refers to cloud service providers — the large US hyperscalers whose data center buildouts have become a dominant source of memory demand. According to TrendForce's assessment, those cloud customers are the main force behind the pricing pressure expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Cloud Demand Drives the Squeeze

The dynamic described by TrendForce is straightforward: when a handful of very large buyers absorb supply, contract negotiations tilt in favor of the sellers. Early-stage talks on 4Q26 pricing already point to increases, which the firm reads as evidence of strengthening demand momentum.

That demand is not coming from consumers replacing a stick of DDR5 in a desktop. It is coming from the cloud service providers, whose procurement volumes dwarf anything a retail buyer can command. As long as those orders keep coming, suppliers have little reason to hold prices down.

Price Hikes Already in the Rearview

The source article notes that memory pricing has already risen painfully over the past few months. Looking at the German market as a reference point, DDR5 memory is 544% more expensive than before the RAM crisis began.

• At least three more years of global memory shortage, per the YMTC source cited by The Wire China
• 544% — the rise in DDR5 memory prices in the German market since the crisis began
• Fourth-quarter 2026 contract talks show "meaningful price increases," according to TrendForce
• YMTC now ranks third globally in NAND supply, behind Samsung and SK Hynix

Against that backdrop, the prospect of further increases lands differently than it might have a year ago. The direction of travel has been consistent, even if the exact magnitude of each new hike remains uncertain.

SSD Impact Tied to NAND Shift

Because the YMTC leak is tied to NAND, the knock-on effects are most likely to show up in SSD pricing. NAND flash is the core component of solid-state drives, and YMTC's position as the third-largest supplier means its production decisions carry weight across the market.

If YMTC is indeed steering capacity toward higher-margin chips and raising prices, that could tighten SSD supply further. The source article notes that other predictions, including from TrendForce, forecast NAND supply coming back into balance later in 2027 — but that notion is being questioned by the YMTC leak.

The discrepancy between the two outlooks is worth noting. One view sees balance returning in 2027; the other, attributed to a company insider, sees the shortage running at least three more years. Both cannot be fully right.

Caveats Around the Leak

It is worth treating the YMTC claim with care. As the source article points out, it is in the company's interest to talk up its future prospects and profits as it heads into an IPO. The statement is also not an official company announcement but a leak, which raises the possibility that it was intentionally leaked.

That does not make the claim false, but it does mean readers should weigh it as one data point rather than a confirmed corporate forecast. The same caution applies to any single-source report on supply conditions, where incentives are rarely neutral.

Other Voices Align on Longer Timeline

The view that the crisis could run three more years — taking it to 2030 — is shared by other analysts and industry figures, according to the source article. That group reportedly includes Nvidia's CEO, along with voices in the SSD world.

The alignment matters less as proof than as context. When a leak from a chipmaker, an analyst firm's contract-pricing survey, and comments from major industry players all point in the same direction, the case for expecting relief soon gets weaker rather than stronger.

What the Numbers Say

For readers trying to plan a purchase, the practical picture from the source material is this: DDR5 prices in Germany are up 544% from pre-crisis levels, TrendForce expects meaningful increases in 4Q26 contract pricing, and the YMTC source projects at least three more years of shortage.

Each of those figures points the same way. None of them suggest a near-term reprieve, and the only forecast offering a 2027 return to balance is the one now being challenged.

Why This Matters Beyond Enthusiasts

Memory pricing is not a niche concern. It feeds into the cost of laptops, desktops, servers, and the cloud services built on top of them. If contract prices rise again in the fourth quarter of 2026, those costs will eventually surface somewhere — in retail shelf prices, in enterprise procurement budgets, or in the subscription fees attached to cloud platforms.

For businesses planning hardware refreshes, the inference is uncomfortable: budgeting on the assumption that memory costs will ease next year may prove optimistic. For consumers, the 544% DDR5 figure is a reminder of how far prices have already traveled, and how little room there is for further increases before upgrades become hard to justify.

The YMTC leak carries its own caveats, given the company's IPO ambitions and the unofficial nature of the statement. But the broader direction — tight DRAM supply, cloud-driven demand, and forecasts that keep getting pushed further out — is consistent across the sources cited here. That consistency, rather than any single claim, is the part worth watching.